For a moment in US trading yesterday, there was a concern that risk trades would've faltered. But at the end of the day, the more optimistic mood was salvaged as stocks ended the day higher. In continuing with that, we're seeing gold slide back further today to hit $2,300. That comes amid a shift in the near-term sentiment in the day before as pointed out here.
In FX, the dollar continues to keep in a rather comfortable position. The commodity currencies are off to a decent start this week but against the dollar, the gains are nothing to shout about. Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues to hover close to the 155.00 mark as we await the more important data releases on the week. Is Icarus flying too close to the sun?
As for trading today, PMI data will be in the spotlight. The euro area and UK releases should not do much to impact the outlook for the ECB and BOE respectively. That is unless we get some major surprises in the readings. But all else being equal, the ECB is on track for a move in June and the BOE is still likely to keep the door open for a move in August.
Looking at the market odds, traders are seeing a ~67% probability of a ECB rate cut in June. As for the BOE in August, traders have fully priced in that while seeing a ~62% probability of a move in June. I wouldn't expect these odds to shift dramatically today. But we'll see.
If anything else, the US PMI data later today is likely to be the one with more potential impact.
0715 GMT - France April flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI
0730 GMT - Germany April flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI
0800 GMT - Eurozone April flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI
0830 GMT - UK April flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
