–Ex Auto & Gas Flat; Autos-Parts +1.5%, Gasoline -1.6% vs +0.9% Nov
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – U.S. December retail sales printed +0.1%
overall, -0.2% excluding autos, and flat excluding autos and gasoline,
in a surprisingly slow end to Q4 that was decidedly below expectations.
But sales were revised higher for October and November, showing
momentum and giving hope that the totals will be revised higher when
additional information becomes available. Overall Q4 retail sales are up
+7.9% SAAR, probably enough to assure +3% real GDP growth.
December retail sales were boosted by furniture at +1.0%, building
materials +1.6%, healthcare +0.6%, clothing +0.7%, and sporting goods
+0.4%. Autos & parts posted +1.5%.
The weakness was centered in electronics at -3.9% and food/beverage
stores -0.2%, as these appeared unable to overcome severe seasonal
adjustment factors. Nonstore retailer sales (includes on-line shopping)
were -0.4%.
Some of the biggest seasonal adjustments to sales come in December,
to account for the holiday shopping season. This year’s downward
adjustment was for about 15% of sales, or -$61 billion.
So the bottom line is that even with a weak-ish December result the
consumer appeared to have strength that should spill into Q4. Rising
incomes and additional job openings could support this spending ahead,
though the jury remains out on whether any economic pickup can be
sustained in the face of de-stimulus from the federal government and
problems in Europe.
The 12-month change in retail sales was +7.7% in 2011 (the third
best gain on record after 1993 and 1999) after +6.5% in 2010 and -7.2%
in 2009. This illustrates economic recovery.
**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**
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