London, March 12 (MNI) – The following are highlights of forecasts
for upcoming U.K. economic indicators and summaries of upcoming events.
All times in GMT/ET format.
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Monday, Mar 12
1915/1515 BOE Executive Director Markets Paul Fisher speech
At Warwick Alumni Group
Fisher has been one of the more dovish member of the Monetary
Policy Committee, but in a Sky TV interview last month he said if the
economy avoids the feared contraction this would strengthen the case for
not extending quantitative easing.
“We don’t seem to be continuing to slide down into negative growth.
If that’s what it looks like over the next few months that will put more
weight on the arguments for stopping rather than for carrying on,” he
said.
The most recent data suggest the economy is indeed expanding again.
It is unlikely, however, that Fisher will yet be ready to make a clear
case against more QE.
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Tuesday, Mar 13
0835/0435 BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker Speech At ABI
The man who is the BOE’s leading internal candidate to succeed
Governor Mervyn King has repeatedly sounded hawkish, without actually
breaking ranks.
He has said the central bank can only continue to provide
extraordinary stimulus as long as inflation expectations remain
anchored. The BOE’s Q1 survey showed expectations easing, providing
reassurance on this point.
0930/0530 Jan Trade Balance Report
Prior Median
0930/0530 Jan Trade: Global Trade in Goods -7.111 -7.7
0930/0530 Jan Global Trade in Goods and Services -1.109 -1.9
0930/0530 Jan Non-EU Trade in Goods -3.748 -4.3
The UK’s goods trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly rapidly in
December, to stg7.111 billion from stg8.908 billion in November, and
analysts expect a partial reversal of this move in January. The sharp
fall in imports on the month, in particular, looks unsustainable.
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Wednesday, Mar 14
0930/0530 Feb Labour Force Survey
Prior Median
0930/0530 Feb Claimant Count Change (000s) 6.9 5.0
0930/0530 Feb Claimant Count Rate (%) 5.0 5.0
0930/0530 Jan Avg WK. earnings, Total (% 3m y/y) 2.0 2.0
0930/0530 Jan Avg Weekly Earnings, Ex (% 3m y/y) 2.0 1.9
0930/0530 Jan ILO Unemployment Rate (%3m/3m) 8.4 8.4
0930/0530 Jan ILO Unemployment Change (000s) 48
A recent private sector labour market survey, the KPMG/REC survey
from Markit, showed marked growth in permanent jobs and a decline in
temporary jobs, with the big picture one of “broad stabilisation”.
Economists expect the rise in unemployment to slow in the official
data. The increase in the benefit claimant count jobless measure is
expected to have slowed to a trickle in February, with earnings growth
running steady and, at 2%, bang-in-line with the inflation target.
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Thursday, Mar 15
1130/0730 UK BOE MPC member Ben Broadbent speech
At Market News International Event
This speech, followed by a Q and A, will be Broadbent’s second
keynote speech since joining the Monetary Policy Committee.
Broadbent has voted with the majority on the MPC, but in his public
comments he has downplayed the doom and gloom and the former Goldman
Sachs economist places weight on the improvement in money markets
following the European Central Bank’s LTROs.
Anyone wishing to attend the speech and Q and A please contact
mnievents@marketnews.com
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For further information contact David Robinson on 4420 7862 7491;
e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]
