The FX market at its core is made up of a number of large banks, commercial, investment and central, who all have agreed trading limits with each other. Two counterparties can only deal with each other when they have available credit lines open. On Thursday, the SNB was on the bid at 1.2000 for up to EUR10 billion yet the market traded below there, with some interbank platforms reporting lows at 1.1990. This can happen because those neding to sell do not have a credit line (trading limit) with the SNB and so are forced to hit the next best bid. Those selling below the SNB bid must either have been very panicked or else have had less than perfect market information.
This is what I’ve been warning about for the last few weeks as it’s the sort of thing that can happen on a Monday morning, but usually should not happen on a Thursday morning in European liquidity.
