A UBS FX managing director makes the case for why the SNB will keep its grip on the franc in the FT.
In May its foreign currency reserves jumped by SFr66bn alone. But this is still “only” 60 per cent of Swiss gross domestic product. Other small, wealthy open economies such as Singapore, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are estimated to have foreign exchange reserves two to three times the size of their economies. Thus the SNB’s balance sheet so far has not become extreme.
His argument sounds contrived to me. And I have to believe that railing against the peg or saying it will fail is a career-limiting move at UBS or Credit Suisse.
There is chatter today about the SNB selling euros to buy dollars and pounds.
How confident are you about the EUR/CHF peg? My confidence in it is near an all-time low.
