- Expectations of tapering will rise as labour market continues to show cumulative improvement
- Fed wants to be assured that any progress in labour market will be lasting
- Unemployment and and payrolls have clearly improved but other labour data has not
- FOMC decisions are dependant on data
- Forward guidance and asset buying separate tools but market sees them closely linked creating challenges for Fed
- Sharp reaction from markets to Fed comments on tapering in June and September show asset buying very effective
Bullard’s stance comes from an inflation perspective and he has held off his call for tapering to see whether the inflation rate moves back towards the Fed’s 2% target. The fact he’s mentioned that a small taper would be ok means that he may be shifting his expectations, at least to a slightly neutral stance.
The dollar likes it and USD/JPY breaks the overnight highs to 98.44
