Reuters is carrying a story which suggests that more than a little fine tuning has been made to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s website with regards to their latest trade growth expectations for the the current year
A revised figure of 3.5% was originally published yesterday on the site that was subsequently revised to remove the numbers. The initial version of the report which quoted Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng, was replaced with a new version that had identical wording but with all the numbers and percentages removed.
The Commerce Ministry did not answer calls requesting comment on the reason for the change
Data was also erased showing that foreign direct investment will amount to $120bln for the year, in line with official forecasts but the earlier version of the report also said outward non-financial investment from China could also come in around the same level.
That would mark the first time outward flows have pulled even with inward investment flows in China, and would imply a major surge in outward investment in December given that the current accumulated level stands slightly below $90bln.
There is much conjecture in the markets, and on these pages, that China blatantly adjusts its data to meet its criteria and this latest development will only give fuel to that cynicism
But if that trade growth figure of 3.5% is anywhere near the real truth then the official GDP growth forecasts of around 7.5% must also be in serious question and accelerate fears of a global slowdown, supported by falling oil and iron ore prices and spreading into commodity currency weakness.
All in all plenty to keep markets, governments and central banks very much on the back foot in 2015 and,indeed, beyond.
Reuters has more on the website data mystery here
China and the mystery of the disappearing data
