Japanese nationwide CPI data for December is due on Friday
(on 17 January 2019 at 2330GMT … yes Thursday GMTGMT time but Friday morning Japan time)
- Headline is expected at 0.3% y/y, prior 0.8%
- CPI excluding fresh food is expected at 0.8% y/y, prior 0.9%
- And excluding fresh food and energy 9this is the one to watch) 0.3%, prior 0.3%
I suspect Kuroda will begin drinking heavily as soon as he wakes up on Friday …. if the results are anywhere near those estimates this is very bad news for the BOJ target.
Anyway, preview via Capital Economics (this in brief)
- energy inflation may have slowed … marked slowdown in petroleum products inflation overwhelmed the continued pick-up in utilities inflation
- Tokyo CPI … revealed a pick-up in service inflation to a four-month high of 0.7%. That may be a reflection of rising wage costs and we've pencilled in a rebound in inflation excluding fresh food and energy to 0.4%.
- the Bank of Japan will probably still lower its inflation forecast for the coming fiscal year at its January meeting
(ps more on the BOJ meeting and associated inflation forecast here: BOJ is about to cut is inflation outlook )
