US government shutdown could slow US Q1 growth

Fitch is out with some thoughts on the US and EU.

For the EU:

  • there is a more material threat to our EU 2019 on growth forecast
  • ECB will likely modify its for guidance on interest rates soon and possibly consider other accommodative moves related to bank financing

For the US:

  • there working assumption is that fiscal policy continues to provide support to US domestic demand growth in 2019 as a whole
  • Fed now looks likely to raise rates in 2019 by less than 3 hikes predicted in December
  • US government shutdown could take a toll on growth in 1Q 2019

For China:

  • it's 2019 forecast for China's real GDP growth of 6.1% still looks achievable despite recent weakness and data
  • retail sales, industrial production, profits and trade growth at all fallen further since early December

For the world:

  • most dramatically, business sentiment in manufacturing sector has been a widespread deterioration across multiple geographies

Not the best of reports from the ratings agency.