US government shutdown could slow US Q1 growth
Fitch is out with some thoughts on the US and EU.
For the EU:
- there is a more material threat to our EU 2019 on growth forecast
- ECB will likely modify its for guidance on interest rates soon and possibly consider other accommodative moves related to bank financing
For the US:
- there working assumption is that fiscal policy continues to provide support to US domestic demand growth in 2019 as a whole
- Fed now looks likely to raise rates in 2019 by less than 3 hikes predicted in December
- US government shutdown could take a toll on growth in 1Q 2019
For China:
- it's 2019 forecast for China's real GDP growth of 6.1% still looks achievable despite recent weakness and data
- retail sales, industrial production, profits and trade growth at all fallen further since early December
For the world:
- most dramatically, business sentiment in manufacturing sector has been a widespread deterioration across multiple geographies
Not the best of reports from the ratings agency.