Forex news for NY trading on January 17, 2019

Markets:

  • Spot gold fell $1.63 or 0.13% at $1292
  • WTI crude oil futures trading down $.06 or -0.11% at $52.25. The low for the day reached $50.98. The high extended to $52.58. The US reported that they are pumping a record 11.9M barrels per day. Russia's Novak said that they will be looking to accelerate cuts and output.
  • Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading at $27.53 at $3630. The range was relatively narrow with a low of $3541 and a high of $3657.

The US stocks rallied on the day and got a boost in the NY afternoon session on backs of a report, that the the US was mulling listing China tarriffs as a attempt to break the trade stalemate. That headline sent the S&P index from about 2622 to a high of 2645 (the 50% of the move down from the 2018 all time high comes in at 2643). On the run higher, the index moved above its 50 day moving average at 2626. Later the report was denied by the Treasury department.

For the day, the price is settling between the 2 key technical levels at 2635.96. Tomorrow will cast the deciding vote on whether the index cracks above the 50% or falls back below the 50 day MA. Key area. Stay tuned. PS Netflix reproted after the close and the numbers could not please investors (of course the stock price IS up 50% since December 24, 2018 - yes less than a month ago). The stock is trading down about -$10 at $340 in after hours trading.

A summary of the major stock indice percentage closes and ranges is outlined below. European shares did not do as well, but most of the US gains came on the afternoon run higher.

It was the day after the vote of no-confidence and two day's after PM May's defeat of her plan and although there was no movement toward "getting together and hashing ideas out" with the opposition party, the GBP squeezed higher. The GBP was the runaway strongest currency of the day. Don't worry. Be happy.

For the GBPUSD, the pair rose 0.82% and in the process moved above and away from the 100 day MA at 1.2893 and the swing high from Monday, at 1.29295. Those levels are now risk in the new trading day. On the topside, a trend line on the daily chart comes in at 1.3036ish, and the 200 day MA is at 1.31058. Both are doable IF progress is made toward a deal first within the UK and next with the EU. There is not a lot of wiggle room, but.... If there is a no-deal Brexit, things could get more ugly. The situation is still very much fluid but the clock still ticks.

Meanwhile, the EURGBP fell below the 100 and 200 day MAs at 0.8889 and 0.8858 yesterday and continued the fall to lower levels today. The pair reached a low of 0.8762, the lowest level since November 15.

In other pairs:

  • The USDJPY ran up on the US/China headlines from 108.95 to a high for the day - and week - at 109.394. That run took the price above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 109.03 (now support/risk for longs). The price has not been above that MA since December 17. The pair is closing at 109.25
  • The NZDUSD also ran higher on the news but ran directly into the 200 hour MA, the 200 day MA and the 50% retracement of the move down at 0.6784-87. The price fell back off to 0.6758 at the close. That hold keeps the sellers more in control. The AUDUSD had a similar run higher and move back down.

In other fundamental news today, the weekly US initial jobless claims came in at 213K vs 220K. That was despite the government shutdown which you would think would lead to a spike in claims. But so far, at least, the numbers remain quite healthy. The other economic release was the Philly Fed Business outlook index which rose to 17.0 vs 9.5 estimate.

The market liked the data with stocks coming off lows and bond yields moving higher. The US debt markets say yields move up with the 2s, 5s and 10s rising by 2.1 to 3.2 bps. The 30 year lagged, however, ending the session near unchanged.

To the Asian Pacific traders have a great day and weekend. The same wishes to the other traders from me, as I will be off tomorrow.