ANZ sticks to their forecast for a November 2024 interest rate cut from the RBA

In response to higher than expected CPI data from Australia in Q1 2024, ANZ's take:

• We think the RBA will want to see a couple of quarters of lower non-tradables and services inflation to be convinced that overall inflation will not only return to the 2–3% target band but remain there,
• our base case remains a November start to RBA rate cuts
• today’s Q1 CPI is consistent with the risks around that being skewed towards a later start

More:

• Australian Q1 CPI +1.0% q/q (expected 0.8%) 3.6% y/y (expected 3.4%)
• 4 reasons why the RBA may be the last major central bank to cut rates

• TD project the first cut in February 2025

• Australia- inflation a bit higher than expected, RBA on hold

The next Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is in the first week of MaY: