Oftentimes, the best place to watch is a quiet market. That's especially true in bitcoin because it's a high volatility asset so the calm won't last for long.
For the past week, the sellers have arrived every time above $48,000 and the buyers below $46,000. However there's a slight downward bias and we're currently less than $200 for the mid-December low of $45,459. A break of that level could start a run on stops and there isn't much standing in the way of a quick retest of $42,000 if that's the case.
What has me especially worried about the downside is that the risk backdrop has been decent in the past three weeks but bitcoin hasn't responded. Rather than tracking the whole market, it's tracking closer to mid-cap tech and things like the ARKK ETF, which is now nearing the lows of the past 12 months.
The tone in tech isn't great at the moment as the value trade and energy gets all the early-year love.