So there was a pre-election debate between the US President
Donald Trump and the former US Vice-president Joe Biden in Cleveland on
Wednesday. It lasted 1.5 hours... and it was hard. Hard to understand, hard to
sort out who said what, hard to match the facts with the words, hard to leave
aside the lies and the allegations of lies - and hard to see what's going to happen
with the USD if either of the candidates wins. But still, let's try.
"Nothing personal"
As orators, Donald Trump was definitely on the offensive,
and Joe Biden was keeping defense throughout the conversation. From a humane
point of view, of the "word-to-fact ratio" was equal between the two (which one
can hardly verify), an impartial observes is probably more likely to favor
Donald Trump. Just because he appears more comfortable in the debate - you just
see it. He does interrupt, he does play it "dirty", and that exactly creates an
impression that he feels comfortable to go beyond the format of the public discussion.
Joe Biden couldn't pick up with the pace most of the time and partly due to
this was looking definitely less aggressive in general. That's why he looked
more like an offended side that is trying to restore some kind of balance and
advocating certain ideals of social purity and fairness. For that reason, it
felt like Joe Biden was addressing and appealing to those in the American
society who feels abused, mistreated, offended, belittled, forgotten, etc.
That's why, and Donald Trump didn't hesitate to use that stigma, Joe Biden was
coming as a far-leftist, socialist-like candidate who was going populist in
this line (socialist populism presses on "defending the offended" most of the
time - and wins hearts with that). In the meantime, Donald Trump was trying to
portray himself as a centrist, support by power structures, a strong
businessman in the highest rank of power who knows how to sort things out...
and how to talk himself out of problems as well. Joe Biden was accusing his
opponent of that most of the time: his central argument against Trump was that
a lot of words were said, and very few actions really took place.
Economy
Trump's argument against Biden in economic talks was that
what Biden suggests is unrealistic and unfeasible most of the time. Everything
from what is related to climate change to taxes and "making America great
again". Biden's argument is that Trump only defends big businesses and never
thinks of the fundamentals of any economy - small businesses. Hence, the
different views on tax policy: Biden wants to increase the corporate tax, Trump
doesn't. Speaking in Marxist ideology (which none of the speakers would
probably like), Biden suggests the way to redistribute social wealth in favor
of the lowest classes, while Trump relies on the corporate tycoons. What was
apparent, though, is that Trump's thinking is more economic-like, in general.
Biden's is more ideological and politics-based. You know it when you see it: if
a person has a "business grip", you feel it. Trump has it. Biden - hardly. But
who knows. Anyway, the first impression that comes to one's mind is that Trump is more "familiar" with the USD just
because he is a businessman in the first place: he knows how to make money, he
knows what can be done with the money, he knows tax code like a local
church pastor knows Testament. So
wherever the USD goes with Trump, it appears that Trump will just be more
comfortable driving it in either direction. Whereas with Joe Biden, the USD
will always be an economic consequence of political actions. Furthermore,
even when Joe Biden says that Trump has no plan for basically anything, somehow
it feels like if a Trump, who supports big businesses, is in power, there will
be more dollars in circulation. In the end, one of his stances was that America
has long been waiting to see cheap US dollar to compete with other -
particularly, Chinese - cheap national currencies. That would attract foreign investment
to the US and expand the American economy. Otherwise, international businesses
would leave to other countries, such as China, Mexico, or even Russia - that's
another argument Trump has against Biden. So in general, Trump appears "more
economic" and more about the USD than Biden. Biden appears more about "the
abused" which, taken technically, is no less populist than Trump's making
America great again, etc.
No man's land
One of the primary issues that loom on the horizon for the
USD is actually not who wins the election, but whether he (we can say only "he"
now as both candidates are male - Americans chose it so) will be accepted as
the winner. As Nouriel Roubini rightly stated, the schism in the American society,
the intensity of the polemics, the rise of urban crime, and lack of control of
situation over Covid-19 - even with Trump's law enforcement measures - all
point to a serious possibility of a prolonged effect of the elections process
on the USD as an indicator of the American domestic well-being. In other words,
the USD will definitely have prolonged pressures if there is a chance that the
voting before, on, and after the planned day of election sees any kind of
impediment for being carried out on time and - very importantly - recognized.
Not only the USD, of course, - the stock market will have a big downside
potential if either candidate with his supporters disagrees with the outcome of
the election. And that possibility seems to be gaining momentum. That's why,
while we don't know where the USD goes with either candidate, expect higher
volatility and unpredictability within the next five weeks.
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