Remember that we can never know the exact nature of all orders in the market but often times we can get a sense of them if the big banks are reporting similar information.
The market is very short EUR/USD, but its also rightfully bearish and if Sovereigns and Real Money are forced to sell, then we could still see a hard fall. This may look unlikely at the moment given all the bad news in the market and the market’s inability to fall, but I’m not sure that going long EUR/USD against the market is a clever idea given all the potential hazards.
Therefore: Short EUR/USD ahead of reported sell orders at 1.3360/65. Keep a tight stop-loss above more reported sell orders at 1.3400 and possibly even a stop-reverse order? If the market breaks above 1.3450 then it’s likely to fly. Look to cover partial shorts if 1.3280 holds but be prepared to add to shorts below 1.3260.
It’s getting close to December so keep stop-losses tighter than usual and ride those profits for longer as the ranges are soon to start getting bigger.