The AUDUSD has moved below the 200 day MA (at 1.0397) , the 100 day MA (at 1.0379) and the 50% retracement at the 1.03569 level and the low from last week at the 1.03344 level. The low for the day is 1.03217 so far. The bias remains to the downside for the pair as long as the price remains below these levels. The next key target on the daily chart above comes in at the 1.02395 level. This is the 61.8% of the move higher.
Looking at the hourly chart, projecting a channel target shows support at the 1.0307 area today (this is downward sloping so the target will move lower each hour – see chart below). I would expect the line to solicit some profit taking in the pair but the bias remains lower.
What would change the bias? If the price would move above the 100/200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart, this should solicit some further short covering. These moving averages were breached earlier in the day’s session, but failed and the price has resumed the trend lower (see chart below). The 100 bar MA currently comes in at the 1.0354 level (and moving lower). This also corresponds roughly with the 50% retracement on the daily (at 1.0356).
