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From Japan’s Cabinet Office:

  • GDP (seasonally adjusted) for Q4, preliminary q/q: 0.3% (expected 0.7%, prior 0.3%)
  • GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted) for Q4, preliminary: 1.0% y/y (expected 2.8%, prior 1.1%)
  • GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted) for Q4, preliminary: 0.4% q/q (expected 0.8%, prior 0.2% revised from 0.3%)
  • GDP Deflator y/y for Q4, preliminary: -0.4% (expected -0.2%, prior -0.4%, revised from-0.3%)
  • GDP Consumer Spending y/y for Q4: 0.5% (preliminary: expected 0.8%, prior 0.2%)
  • GDP Business Spending y/y for Q4: 1.3% (preliminary: expected 1.8%, prior 0.2% revised from flat at 0.0%)

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Big miss on GDP – looks like the economic recovery is losing momentum. 4th consecutive q/q decline

Big miss on consumer spending, despite spending ahead of the sales tax increase (but nevertheless, up on the prior quarter)

Miss on business spending also, in below forecasts ( (Again though, up on the prior quarter)

  • Net export contribution came in at -0.5%
  • Domestic demand contribution in at +0.8%
  • Q4 Capex +1.3% q/q, a +0.2% contribution to GDP

Yen strengthening on the data release … I wonder how long we will have to wait for calls to begin for more BOJ easing?