Looks like the retail sales were enough of a turnaround to have the market analysts pouring over their calculations and getting bury with the eraser.
- Goldman Sach’s “tracking” estimate runs up to 1.5% from 1.3%
- Credit Suisse up their call to 1.3% from 1.1% on “strong March sales”
- Barclays tracking goes up to 2.1% from 2.0%
- Morgan Stanley raise theirs by 0.1% to 1.2%
- Pierpoint say they’ve seen enough in the weather related rebound to raise their Q1 consumer spending forecast to 1.8% from 1.6%
- CIBC see consumer growth returning and keep their Q2 4% estimate
- BNP say they still see a significant slowdown in personal consumption despite the good numbers
Comment of the day goes to Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi who said of the retail sales numbers;
“The consumer came in like a lamb and went out like a lion.” “The linchpin of economic growth, the consumer is back!”
WTF
While many were looking for a big “catch up” in recent data I think the market, like with US jobs, is happy that things have, at the very least, returned to levels before the weather kicked in.
