Here is an interesting piece from Australia this morning. I should post a warning … if you’re an Aussie bear you won’t like it …
OK, here we go:
- even taking the lower-bound estimate of jobs growth from the ABS, the economy still created 63,000 jobs in August
- This is still a very strong number that confirms a marked uptick in job creation this year
- This is the awful truth about Australia’s jobs figures. They show an undeniable and strong acceleration.
- Smoothing out the monthly volatility, and allowing for a sizeable correction from this month’s job gain, about 20,000 to 30,000 jobs are being created a month, compared to 5,000 in 2013
- Importantly, this was an up-trend that was in place prior to this latest ‘unbelievable’ jobs spike
- There is quite simply no escaping the fact that the labour market and the broader economy are doing much better than widely believed. Two hundred and thirty six thousand jobs have been created so far this year. There are 126,000 people in full-time employment and 109,000 in part-time.
- Annual employment growth is at its strongest in about three years
- These are not figures that can be ignored just because you don’t like them, and they are consistent with three other developments:
- 1. The national accounts showing the economy growing above trend.
- 2. Inflation is elevated and already at the top of the bad — this wouldn’t be happening if the economy was weak.
- 3. Jobs growth is also surging in the US, UK and New Zealand. Jobs growth in the UK is at a 40-year high.
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I gotta say … mea culpa … access my posts on the Oz employment data yesterday here, and Adam’s take is here
