The GBPUSD moved up today. It moved down today. It is not that far from the closing level from yesterday, but the focus is about to change as the pair has a date with the Scottish voters tomorrow.
On the move to the upside today, the pair peaked near the 50% of the September trading range, and has come back down toward the lows for the day on the overall dollar buying post-FOMC.
GBPUSD on the hourly chart tested the 100 hour MA after the FOMC but has found support. Above the 50% will be eyed over the next 24 hours.
On the move down, the price did make it to the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and held at the 1.6249 level (see blue line in the chart below). Nice. Nice. This moving average continues to a level to define risk and will be eyed in trading tomorrow. The same can be said for the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below). Stay above and the buyers are in control. Move below and it is a different story.
Also on the topside, watch that 50% level. The market was somewhat responsive to it today – with sellers entering near (the 50% comes in at 1.6346 and the high came in at 1.6356). Much will depend on the vote of course and quite honestly, if it is a “Yes” the powers that be in Scotland and the rest of the UK, have a lot of figuring to do. It will be such a mess, that the market seems to feel that the chances of it happening are not that great. They can’t vote “Yes” can they?
Anyway, with the FOMC out of the way, the focus is heading that way. Risk and volatility has the potential to be huge.
Looking at the daily chart below, the lows from early February came in at 1.6451 where the market just bottomed against the 100 hour MA. The 38.2% of the move up from the 2013 low comes in at 1.62814. This increases that areas importance. If the price can move above this resistance area – and stay above – it too will be a bullish sign. Longer term, if the buyers can get this thing going higher, the 1.6461 is looking like a nice target area. Not only is it topside channel resistance but it also is the low from March 2014 (see chart below).
GBPUSD on the daily chart has support from the February 2014 low and the 38.2% of the move up from the 2012 low (at 1.62814)
—
