OK … now depending on your perspective that headline might be accurate, or a bit harsh. But its not inaccurate …
MNI have posted up an analysis (its gated), which in brief says that while many BOJ members are expected to revise their inflation forecasts lower for fiscal 2015 at the next monetary policy board meeting (January 20-21), a slight majority will stick with their forecasts for 2% inflation during the fiscal year by stretching the definition to include early parts of fiscal 2016.
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So, is that a stretch of the truth?
Interestingly, in the Nikkei overnight, a staff writer took a look at how the BOJ’s inflation target timing has been getting “a little fuzzier”:
- when looking back over the months and years since April 2013, the central bank can be seen subtly tweaking its language regarding the inflation target, making the timing a little fuzzier each time
- Starting with the relatively concrete “within two years,” the BOJ later began talking about reaching the goal within “around” two years
- After that, the bank updated its wording to “toward the latter half of the projection period.”
- Most recently, the central bank said it sought to achieve “2% inflation in or around fiscal 2015.”
- Now BOJ watchers are turning their attention to what time frame central bank Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda will give after the bank holds its policy board meeting later this month.
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Says MNI:
- While falling energy prices are expected to support Japan’s growth in the longer term, they pose a near-term threat to the BOJ’s target of anchoring inflation
