The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy board is today

  • announcement due at 0330 GMT
  • the announcement will accompanied by the statement from Governor Lowe

Earlier previews:

TD, along with everyone else expect a no change change decision, but place probabilities on how the board may express a bias 9in summary from a more detailed note):

  • Dovish at 4% … not likely with household debt to income at record highs
  • Neutral at 95% … risks abound, but the central RBA scenarios are playing out
  • Hawkish at 1% … needs growth in wages for the Bank to turn hawkish

What TD expect for the AUD under each of the scenarios outlined: