Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecast via analysts at Capital Economics.
CE says economic data from NZ is improving
- GDP growth
- labour market
- inflation
will all "be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated."
Capital Eco is calling for:
- asset purchases to be wound down from this year
- Bank hikes rates in 2022
And have 'pencilled in' 3 hikes to take the cash rate to 1.0% by the middle of 2023.
More:
- the recovery in output occurred much faster than we had anticipated as GDP returned to pre-virus levels in Q3
- most measures of underlying inflation surged in Q4 2020, all are now close the RBNZ's target mid-point
- the NZ housing market "is running red hot"
- "By the end of 2022 we expect inflation will have been around or above target for nearly two years and that employment should be above its maximum sustainable level. On that basis we expect the Bank to begin hiking rates at the end of 2022."
