ANZ says the New Zealand Q3 QSBO helps make the case for an RBNZ rate hike tomorrow

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting is Wednesday 05 October 2021.

Earlier:

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Review on Wednesday - preview

and this, some wobbles at the NZIER's Shadow Baord but the majority still expecting a hike this week:

• RBNZ 'shadow board' split on cash rate hike recommendation

The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) post is here:

• New Zealand QSBO for Q3 2021, business confidence headline -11% (vs. 7% prior)

ANZ assess the QSBO data today:

• What does this data mean for the RBNZ? Looking through the considerable noise, it’s another green light for beginning their long-expected OCR hikes.
• The RBNZ have emphasised that reduced monetary stimulus is needed to avoid overshooting their targets – and for us, today’s data confirms that this is a real risk despite the likelihood of prolonged lockdown in Auckland – and the very real risk that the rest of the country will find itself under more onerous restrictions before long. We continue to expect the RBNZ will raise the OCR 25bps to 0.5% at tomorrow’s meeting.
• Of course, that’s not to say there aren’t risks.
• We think the least regret for the RBNZ is still to stabilise the economy by gradually lifting the OCR to a rate that is no longer stimulatory (we think that’s around 1.5%), while being prepared to pause or even reverse course should downside risks eventuate.