From BNP Paribas’ weekly ‘Global FX Plus’

  • They say … Don’t Capitulate on Dollar Longs

Here are their FXtrade recommendations:

(Re-establishing) Long USDJPY at 108.15,(USD price action is advantageous for going long USDJP Y.  The BoJ and FOMC policy meetings will be key catalysts):

  • targeting 112, stop loss 106. 50 

Long GBPCHF at 1.5489,

  • targeting 1.62, stop loss 1. 5250 

Short EURCAD at 1.4140,

  • targeting 1.35, stop loss 1 .4350 

Short EURNOK at 8.1780,

  • targeting 7.8000, stop loss 8.3000 

Short EURUSD at 1.2940,

  • target lowered to 1.22, sto p loss trailed to 1.2800 

Long EURCHF at 1.2305,

  • targeting 1.2500, stop loss 1 .1970

BNP’s “G10 Themes ” – Euro and Japan investors step into the global spotlight 

  • Our FX forecasts assume a benign adjustment to tighter Fed policy, with the USD gaining more ground vs low yielders. 
  • During QE, US investors increased purchases of foreign bonds; Euro and Japan investors may behave similarly. 
  • Eurozone’s large current account surplus is potential sour c e of funding for deficit economies. 

And also …. BNP’s FX Volatility Focus – EURGBP shorts superior to EURUSD shorts? 

  • The carry in longer dated EURGBP is very attractive both in curve and vol- adjusted carry terms. 
  • Especially inside the 5 year tenor, vol adjusted carry in EUR short is superior in EURGBP to that in EURUSD.
bnp currency forecasts
bnp estimated fx positioning

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OK … so that’s 3 posts from me today on investment banks liking the US dollar. 3 strikes and I’m out, right?

Technical analysis chart for the US dollar from Citi

Which investment bank says “Keep Calm and Buy the USD”

And now for something completely different:

Which Aussie bank is calling for the AUD/USD to be 0.90 by year end? And why.