Canada is the only game in town today
Europe and the US are closed but Canadian markets are up and running today. Resource prices are slightly lower and that may weigh on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
It's also putting some minor weight on the Canadian dollar, which is trailing every major currency but the euro today. USD/CAD is up 18 pips on the day to 1.2298 with WTI crude down 45-cents.
USDCAD daily
Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada rate decision is on Wednesday. The 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg unanimously expect no change from the 0.75% benchmark rate.
The OIS market is a bit more skittish with a 7% chance of a cut priced in. That increases to nearly 30% by year end.
The Globe & Mail has a good preview, noting that the BOC view on the US economy will be important. The Bank's forecasts rely on a pickup in exports and that would be in jeopardy if the US continues to stumble.
"The US economy is slightly puzzling right now. That's why I'm not offering you a new forecast today," Poloz said last week.
The key release for CAD traders this week is the first look at Q1 GDP on Friday. The consensus is a 0.3% annualized pace, which is a touch better than the flat reading Poloz has been touting.
