Bank of England MPC meeting Minutes now published
No change in view on that header
- all members agreed that headwinds weighing on the economy will persist
- outlook similar to November inflation report
- see quarterly growth of around +0.5% around turn of year, less than November forecast
- recent depreciation of sterling if sustained would lessen drag on CPI to some degree
- unclear if more restrained outlook for near-term growth to reduce inflation pressure
- oil price fall should in time provide support for spending in UK
- Pvt domestic demand appears healthy but weaker business activity note
- recent volatility in fin markets underlines downside risks to global growth
- US Fed rate rise was met positively in US equity markets
- still a wide range of views amongst MPC members about balance of risks to inflation target
Nothing that I can see so far to change my dovish view.
Cable back down to 1.4388 after a brief look above 1.4400 on the 8-1 vote remaining in place allaying the fears of a 9-0. Second-wave buying could yet make an impact.
The Minutes conclude with:
"This guidance is an expectation, not a promise. The actual path that Bank Rate will follow over the next few years will depend on the economic circumstances."
Hardly a rush for lift-off any time soon.
Full Minutes here