Carney testifies at a Parliamentary Committee in London along with McCafferty, Weale and Forbes:
- Carney: wage growth just starting to pick up
- There is reason to believe that growth in China might be more volatile than stats suggest
- Broader indicators (and official ones) indicate a slowing in the Chinese economy
- Downside risks to Chinese growth have risen
- There seems to be some element of smoothing in Chinese data
- MPC is more pessimistic on China than consensus
- BOE tightening is likely to be longer and shallower than in the past
- UK economic momentum 'solid'
- Unit labor cost growth was likely to have been only around 1.25% in the second quarter of 2015
- After conversations with Chinese officials in past two weeks, he had no doubts about the intention to maintain pace of financial reform
- We see the economy using up excess capacity within a year and going into an excess of demand
- Current account deficit is not currently material now
- Pound strength is important factor for inflation
McCafferty:
- Worried about domestic inflation risks
- Upside inflation risks have increased
- Sees limited impact from China turmoil on UK
- Manufacturing may have slowed over the Summer due to sterling and overseas weakness
- BOE intends to raise rates before selling QE gilts
Forbes:
- UK inflation soon to begin journey back toward target
- My reading on the labor market suggests there is very little slack, if any
- Low UK inflation is unlikely to last
Weale:
- China is a risk, not having a clear downside forecast
- Productivity is key to his rate hike view
- Potential for downside CPI risks a reason for caution
- Strong growth in real incomes is likely to be main force driving UK economy
We will continue to bring headlines as they come. If you'd like to listen live, here's a link.
