BOE's Haldane speaks to the TUC in London

  • The case for raising interest rates is still some way from being made
  • MPC consistently surprised by weakness of wages, given strong pick up in jobs
  • Risky to raise rates when UK's economic engine is losing velocity
  • There's possibility weaker wage growth means a "materially lower path for inflation than contained in November's Inflation Report"
  • Wages are expected to outpace productivity over the next few years
  • A rate rise now would "increase unnecessarily the chances of UK economy falling below critical velocity"
  • MPC needs to be ready to move rates higher or lower, depending on incoming data
  • sees inflation hitting and remaining around 1.6% at the two-year horizon
  • Wage growth so far this year appears to have subsided somewhat
  • Annualised rates of pay growth are around 1 to 1.5% in Q3, down from 2.5 to 3% in Q2
  • World events have added to those downside skews over the past few months
  • More convincing evidence of gentle slowing in UK and world economies since the summer
  • A more entrenched uncertainty about demand is, once more, on the rise- Weak wage growth 3-yrs out offset by stronger company profits, higher investment
  • UK jobs and industries are being fundamentally reshaped by globalisation and technology
  • Plenty of good news regarding UK Labour market following yesterday's
  • Drop in jobless rate considerably faster than MPC foresaw

Livesquawk first with the headlines on Haldane

Another dovish commentary from the BOE dove who was all over the news yesterday. That's probably the reason why the pound hasn't reacted more. Cable has dipped around 20 pips to 1.5198