- Brazil central bank leader Tombini said stimulus measures haven’t shown impact yet
- Signs that economic growth will quicken
- Default rates already falling
- Banks have room to expand credit
- Still too early to assess food-price shocks
At the same time, politicians are talking about tax cuts and higher energy subsidies.
Brazilian growth correlates well with China and other emerging markets and leaders sound confident that it is on the upswing.
If so, and the US can regain its footing while Europe holds together, the longer-term outlook for risk assets is incredible — think AUD/USD at 1.20 and USD/CAD at 0.8500.