Citi on the FOMC, USD: "May see a shift in policy tone from the Fed"

CitiFX with a short, but interesting piece:

With the meteoric rise of the US Economic Surprise Index driven by improvement in surprises across sectors, we may see a shift in policy tone from the Fed which advised caution on over-reacting to isolated data surprises last month.

We investigate deeper into the sources of improvement in the ESI and find that in addition to positive surprises, data momentum is also picking up, making it more difficult for the Fed to continue emphasizing growth fears.

We find that the aggregation in the US raw data surprises has been a good historical indicator for hawkish Fed bias and performs well in trading EURUSD around Fed announcements.

With hedge fund positioning suggesting a long USD bias and the US ESI at 2-year highs, we are likely to see a USD bid into the next Fed meeting.

This is via eFX (did I see Ryan with a link saying there is a free trial available?)