Ex- PBOC adviser Yu Yonding in the China Daily (via Bloomberg report)

  • Says the yuan wouldn't fall too far if floated
  • Or for too long
  • 'Cause of China's current and long-term capital account surpluses
  • Also, even if there was a 'double digit depreciation of the yuan it wouldn't usher in a financial crisis as external corporate debt isn't too high

Meanwhile Société Générale analysts say that

  • Capital outflows are applying significant downward pressure on the yuan
  • And they see a 65% probability of a fall to 6.80 for CNY (i.e USD/CNY rising to 6.80)