A very quick preview of the FOMC meeting from Deutsche Bank
(The FOMC meet on December 15-16, with the announcement on December 16. If I was Yellen I'd do the announcement as a surprise on the 15th, just for kicks. But, I digress).
- Fed is almost certainly going to rake rates at the next FOMC
DB says on the "dovish hike concept" ...
it is hard for us to imagine how the Fed can really pull that one off in the context of labor market that remains robust, reinforcing confidence in their own forecast
On the path:
Yellen has made clear she believes the short run neutral real rate, currently "estimated" around zero, is rising ... The Fed on that metric is already still around 1 percent too easy and will want to keep up. If as she expects the longer term equilibrium nominal rate is 3 1/2 percent then she implicitly expects this rate to rise as much as another 150 bps.
(From a DB client note)
