Good rallies in USDCHF and EURCHF with the SNB in the frame again 2 Feb
USDCHF up to 0.9311 from 17-month lows of 0.9247 with EURCHF also making a rapid move to 1.1619 from 1.1580 after holding 1.1560 again.
2+2 may often make 5 , USD demand prevailing generally and the SNB may have been nowhere near these moves but I'm wagering that they have.
I observed in a post earlier this week that with 35% of fx reserves in USD the SNB had a problem on their hands with a long and wrong position having intervened on many occasions over the past year or so only to see USDCHF fall from 1.0200 to those 0.9247 lows seen in Asia. Q4 reval came in at 0.9869 vs 0.9919
USDCHF Daily
EURCHF may have rallied as is also their wish, and that would suit the long book with a 40% of reserves holding, but still lower now than the 1.1833 highs seen on 15 Jan, ironically 3 years since SNB pulled the rug at 1.2000.
So Jordan is still talking his book , and therefore shareholders interest too, calling for CHF weakness and saying it's over/highly valued and says intervention still on the agenda. The difference being that now sellers seem happy to sell into USDCHF and EURCHF rallies as USD supply prevails overall and global fragility gives safe-haven demand for the franc.
SNB desire/end-game vs market sentiment/flow. It's going to carry on playing out for a while yet.
