The number crunchers are crunching and here’s what they’ve come up with.
- Economists give a 40% probability of the ECB conducting sovereign bond purchases
- December TLTRO take up to be around €175bn
- Eurozone private lending needs to grow by a sustained 3% to stir inflation
I’m a seller of seeing 3% private lending anytime soon.
I’m still going to warn that if we don’t start seeing some gains from the ECB tools by early next year, we are going to see the fan hit by a certain something.
