BoA / Merrill Lynch preview of the FOMC decision due on 17 June 2015. They say ...

The FOMC will not hike in June ... But will they give a clear signal that they plan to hike in September?

  • The consensus view among Fed officials suggests not-at least not through an explicit change in the policy language
  • Rather, the April minutes suggest the "description of the economic situation and outlook, and of progress towards the Committee's goals" is the best way to communicate when liftoff will likely occur
  • In June, that includes changes to the Summary of Economic Projections and the tone of Chair Janet Yellen's press conference

BoA/ML also provide a handy checklist to watch ...

We recommend keeping track of a checklist of data-dependent outcomes that would be needed for a rate hike in September:

  1. continued improvement in the labor market;
  2. above-trend growth in 2Q and beyond;
  3. & underlying inflation steady but not falling

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More here:

  • Goldman Sachs FOMC preview ... September the baseline for monetary tightening
  • Fed lift off in September says Reuters poll
  • What to expect from the FOMC meeting this week - view from 8 banks
  • FOMC preview: When the Fed hikes rates is less important than how
  • Rate hike lift-off plans; June, September? Where's your Fed at?