Fed funds rate held in the 1.75%-2.00% range

Highlights of the statement:

  • Household spending has 'grown strongly' versus spending 'has picked up' previously

  • Economic activity has been rising at a 'strong' rate versus 'solid' rate.

  • Unemployment rate has 'stayed low' versus 'declined'

  • 12-month inflation 'remains near' 2% versus 'moved close to' 2%

  • No changes in guidance or balance of risks

  • Prior statement

The upgrades in household spending and overall growth are the only notable change. In fact, they're the only remotely notable changes.

Still, they're important. If they see better growth then that's going to lead to a more hawkish bias and a higher chance of two more hikes this year. A September hike remains highly likely and could only be derailed by a major escalation in the trade war or something unforeseen.