The last time we had a run up in Covid cases in December/January, it did not impact the economy as much as expected
There has been some pretty good macroeconomic outcomes despite the pandemic
He thinks inflation will be more persistent than some people think
Sees inflation at 2 1/2% to 3% in 2022 (last week he said that inflation would settle around 2 1/2% in 2022. So he is upping his talking point at least).
Thinks inflation will come down but not as low as some people want
Does not think there will be a taper tantrum in the markets
Labor markets are improving and people will be matched up with jobs seven
Believes the Fed should taper more quickly so the Fed can be prepared to react with rates in 2022
Very clear that things have progressed more rapidly than the Fed had expected
He is moderately concerned about the housing market
We need to start thinking now about where we want to be in 2022
We don't really need asset purchases at this point.
Housing market has been resilient and strong giving another reason to get out of asset purchases
Expects US labor market to add about 500,000 jobs a month. It is not easy to at 1 million jobs in a particular month.
