Here are a few bits and pieces from around the place in the past few days on what to watch for from the Federal Reserve this week

  • The FOMC meeting is Wednesday, 27 July 2016
  • Announcement due at 1800GMT

Barclays

  • Not expecting a rate hike, nor much in the way of a signal on when the next hike is due
  • Statement will reference improving economy and labour market; the June employment data will do more to convince the poor numbers in May were an aberration, but one month's report will not be enough to convince the FOMC to 'change its tune'
  • Barclays now looking at Yellen's appearance at Jackson Hole for more information, that's "a more likely time for a shift in tone"
  • Yellen will have the Q2 GDP & July employment data by then

BoA / Merrill Lynch:

  • Says its likely the FOMC statement will acknowledge generally better data, but say the FOMC will continue to monitor inflation & global risks (Brexit impact especially)
  • FOMC to leave the door open to a September rate hike
  • But not expecting to get any no clear signal on September.
  • BoA / ML say their base case is a December hike

Deutsche:

  • No rate hike this meeting
  • Economists expect the FOMC to say the labour market employment trend has slowed somewhat, but gains are enough to lower the unemployment rate
  • Expect the statement to be thus moderately upbeat
  • Not expecting a strong signal for a September move