A speech from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby will be published on Tuesday 21 September 2021.
- at 9am local time, which is 2100 GMT
The speech is entitled: A least regrets approach to uncertainty.
- The speech outlines the types of uncertainties faced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Te Pūtea Matua - navigating money policy decisions and how the "least regrets" approach has been applied in the past 18 months during COVID.
- The speech reflects on what the bank has learnt about the economy during COVID and how this influenced our most recent decision at the August Monetary Policy Statement.
Hawkesby to speak on the August decision. A day prior to the decision it was odds-on for an RBNZ rate hike and those expectations completely changed that very evening with the latest COVID-19 outbreak in NZ and lockdown.
At the meeting the Monetary Policy Committee discussed both a 25bp and a 50bps increase. Of course, there was no change given the outbreak. Hawkesby's speech tomorrow will be scoured for clues as to whether a 50bp hike is likely at the next meeting (coming up on October 6). Market pricing shows a 50bp hike is in contention, although the favour is towards a 25bp hike. There could be a significant NZD response if Hawkesby gives a firmer indication which way the RBNZ is considering.
