Found one! Everywhere else I look I see an on hold interest rate is expected.
For example, earlier previews:
- Preview of the RBA interest rate meeting on Tuesday 3 February 2020 (& AUD impact)
- RBA policy meeting February 4 - to keep interest rates on hold - preview
- RBA monetary policy meeting next week, February 4. Preview.
- The aussie is in a very delicate spot ahead of the RBA decision next week
- RBA to keep rates on hold next week - Reuters poll
ING, however, are expecting a surprise cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia
- We think that the bushfire emergency as well as the concerns related to the Coronavirus (and its impacts on Chinese activity) play a key role in the Australian economic outlook and should convince the RBA to lower the Cash Rate (by 25bp)
- Alternatively, a hold should still be characterised by a more dovish tone hence suggesting an imminent rate cut.
And, if we get a cut as ING expect, AUD should drop hard:
- Given that the implied probability for a cut is very low, we expect the downside potential for AUD/USD to be significant. If the Coronavirus story keeps market on a risk-off mood, we cannot exclude a break below 0.66 next week.
I like ING's reasoning but do not think the RBA will cut.
He say's he is not moving.
