Is Bernanke poised to announce his departure?

The timing of Obama’s comment about Bernanke is odd ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision and press conference from Bernanke.

To me it raises the risk that Bernanke will announce he will not seek re-appointment when his term ends in January. Such an announcement shouldn’t be a surprise to markets because Bernanke has always sounded reluctant to ‘pull a Greenspan’ and stick around too long.

I don’t anticipate a reaction to the announcement but the risk is toward the market anticipating a more hawkish replacement, which would boost USD (even though Yellen is the favorite, she isn’t an overwhelming favorite).

Another risk is that it changes the headline dynamic of the press conference. Right now, the market is obsession over tapering and this could give traders another talking point. My suspicion is that if the market is less concerned about tapering, it will benefit commodity currencies, stocks and would generally weaken USD.