The Fed stayed collectively quiet in the latest FOMC statement about when it would raise rates but the market has already made up its mind.
The Richmond Fed is a minor economic indicator but it’s another solid data point after months of good news. What’s happening is that everyone is front-running the Fed shifting to a more hawkish tone — it’s virtually a done deal. If economic data continues to beat estimates, this will become a very crowded trade.
The end game will be similar to the pound in the summer. GBP rallied for months but the top came just days after Carney finally signaled he was prepared to hike rates sooner.
The same thing is going to happen with the dollar and the Fed.
In the meantime, buying the dollar is an easier trade because no one wants to be short with the possibility of a Fed headline blowing them out.
Is that a dollar bull or a dollar puppy