More on CBA's dismal outlook for Australia's economy this quarter ... and RBA

The earlier post is here, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia tipping a huge contraction for the Australian economy in Q3 2021.

• Australian CPI report due today - but AUD likely to be moved by at least 2 other factors

CBA forecast -2.7% q/q and therefore a delay to the RBA taper to at least February 2022.

• and 300,000 jobs risk being lost

More:

• revise their forecast for the first RBA rate hike to May 2023 (previously were expected late in 2022)

Citing:

• The negative shock to the economy, particularly the labour market, over the next few months will mean that it takes a little longer for wages pressures to fully emerge

ANZ are also slashing their outlook: Australia - ANZ expect an economic contraction in Q3, rebound in Q4

• forecasting GDP -1.3% q/q in Q3 (prior +0.4%)
• and the RBA to defer its QE taper until at least November