Earlier from Citi on the European Central Bank
More, this via ABN:
We expect a 10bp cut in all of the ECB's main policy rates in September
- second 10bp reduction in Q1 2020
After the June meeting Draghi was explicit that the ECB was willing to cut policy rates
- as well as re-starting QE
- and strengthening forward guidance
- At the ECB Forum in Sintra Draghi emphasised that a package of measures had positive re-enforcing effects in 2014-2015, and we think it may go for the same approach this time around
ABN on the July meeting:
- we think the Governing Council will decide to change its forward guidance on policy rates to explicitly hint at the possibility of rate cuts
Further ahead:
- By December, we expect the ECB to announce a EUR 630bn QE package, to be implemented for 9-months from January 2020 at a pace of EUR 70bn per month.