The latest in our series of previews focusses on today's BOE MPC interest rate decision and Minutes due at 11.00 GMT
To start with the obvious we can safely assume that interest rates will remain on hold yet again, but it's the voting that will have most impact along with the small print
Are there any more hawks likely to be revealing their Autumn plumage or are they firmly tucked up for Winter now ?
My thought is the latter as I see nothing in recent data to justify any more of a bullish tone to the Minutes than we've seen of late. Ok, so yesterday's industrial/mftg production data was welcome but not without its back story and the Sept services PMI reading of 53.3 vs 55.6 prev will inject an added note of caution.
Latest inflation data remains soft as expected by Carney but surely even he will be thinking that his previously bullish year-end forecasts are a bit hard to justify for the moment amidst soft commodity prices globally.
Throw the lack of US Fed decision to hike into the mix and I remain in the camp that errs on the side of caution.
Ok, so wages growth is encouraging but employment improvement is stalling/weaker again and that should filter through soon enough.
The vote last time was 8-1 in favour to keep rates on hold with McCafferty the lone voice looking for a 25bps hike. Other principal hawks, Forbes and Weale both erred on the side of caution but have since advocated hikes sooner rather than later. Full Minutes from Sept here
One thing that worried me last time, and highlighted here, was the MPC's apparent lack of concern over global risk and I will be looking to see whether that tone has changed now. Surely this is not a time to have heads in the sand.
What we need to figure out though is how the Minutes will affect the market and subsequent price action. In the past few days we've seen the pound on the back foot then yesterday on the front foot only to run into sellers again, so the question of what's factored in is all in the mix still
Another 8-1 vote should see little real change but a 9-0 outcome would be the more dovish signal that traders have tried to factor in. I can't see any other outcome to be honest but yes if we did get a 7-2 result then expect the pound to fly as high as the hawks
My levels to look out for on cable will be 1.5335-50 and 1.5400-10 initially should we get anything remotely bullish while 1.5250-80 then 1.5200-20 provide immediate support/bids on a more dovish tone
EURGBP levels are 0.7400-20 on the topside and 0.7280-0.7300 below
Currently 1.5313 and 0.7348
As always, trade what you see and don't over-analyse.
And don't forget that 30 minutes later we will have the ECB Minutes then looking across the pond to the FOMC version later.
Carney - still with a lot to consider