ForexLive have already posted up a preview of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes due on 20 May 2015:

  • Goldman Sachs: 5 things to look for in the FOMC minutes

and

  • Forex technical analysis: What will the FOMC do to the dollars run this week?

From around the banks.... here are a few quickies:

BNP (bolding is mine):

  • Weak data likely a key topic
  • Expect a debate on whether softness was solely due to temporary factors
  • Expect the minutes to gloss over slightly better inflation news
  • It is the labour market the Fed is taking most notice of in assessing how confident it feels with its inflation forecasts
  • In March "several" favoured a June lift-off
  • Some shift in view is likely in these minutes, maybe with some downward revision of estimates of the sustainable unemployment rate
  • There may have been more discussion on delivering a first move at a meeting without a scheduled press conference, giving a "heads up" prior to lift-off, and on the pace of hikes"

Deutsche Bank:

  • Deutsche Bank ponder whether the Minutes will be as dovish as the meeting statement
  • The Minutes will discuss Q1 economic weakness
  • ... "but underscore policymakers' views that the most recent soft patch is temporary, due to inclement weather, the West Coast port slowdown and the collapse in energy-related capital spending"

Citi:

  • Expect the Minutes to be "as non-eventful as the Statement" was after the meeting
  • The emphasis is likely to be again on data dependence
  • Will be a debate over how much "bounce back" in the economy is going to be needed for the first hike
  • If there is a high confidence expressed in the economy bouncing back it will be hawkish than if the if the focus is on weak inflation

RBS Securities:

  • RBS say that in the April statement the FOMC emphasized that the slowdown was due to transitory factors that would not derail the moderate pace of recovery ... "If they sound really confident about that in the minutes, then that's a sign: You have to think there is a good chance that they think they're going to hike in September."
  • But, on the other hand "If they sound very skeptical, you'd start needing to worry about that rate hike coming later"