Yep 15, count 'em! All courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com
ForexLive, the site that just keeps on giving
Here they are:
Goldman: The FOMC Minutes from the July 28-29 meeting should provide some useful information to better assess the timing of the Fed's 'lift-off' date. Our economists' base case remains December.
Nomura: We do not expect the FOMC to use the minutes to send a clear signal about its near-term intentions. That said, the relative dearth of recent public comments from FOMC participants and the markets' recent volatility suggest that the minutes will be scrutinized for any hints on how the Committee is assessing the critical issues. Here are the critical issues and what to look for in the minutes: 1- How does the Committee see the outlook for growth? How strong does growth have to be for the FOMC to start raising rates? 2- How is the Committee evaluating foreign developments and their impact on the US economy, and how is the Committee evaluating financial conditions? 3- How confident is the FOMC in its outlook for inflation? Inflation continues to run well below the FOMC's 2% target and shows no sign of sustained acceleration. 4- How confident is the Committee in its judgment that "slack" has declined to the point that it should be increasing inflationary pressures? 5- What does the Committee expect to learn from incoming data? 6- Does the Committee feel it is ready, from an operational perspective, to raise rates? How concerned is it about year-end volatility? 7- How high is the bar for subsequent interest rate hikes?
Credit Suisse: The July FOMC statement lowered the bar for labor market improvement from needing to see "further improvement" to just "some further improvement" prior to liftoff. The minutes from the meeting should garner significant attention as markets gauge the likelihood of a September rate hike. Persistently low inflation continues to be a concern for the Fed given its dual mandate. We remain bullish on the USD, preferring longs against the commodity bloc (CAD, AUD, NZD) and vulnerable EM currencies (ZAR, TRY, MXN, BRL)
Morgan Stanley: The FOMC minutes will be in focus, especially since the pricing for a September hike has reduced recently so any adjustment back should be USD positive. The markets may be watching for any comment on USD strength; however, we note this is from a meeting prior to the PBoC's moves last week.
Barclays: We do not expect a material change and we anticipate that the document will echo the latest comments from different FOMC members. We think they will want to keep options open and will probably signal the data dependency of their decisions ahead. We believe that the FOMC has already made up their mind about their next move, absent any market disruptive events in the months ahead. Our base case remains a September Fed hik
BofA Merrill: There were relatively few changes to the FOMC statement in July relative to June, but on the labor market front the Committee shifted to highlighting the cumulative progress on reducing underutilization "since early this year." This change was reflected in the policy language, which added the modifier that only "some further improvement" in labor market conditions would be needed for liftoff - a lesser standard that raised the market's expectations for a September start to the hiking cycle at the time. Details about just what Fed officials still want to see on the labor market side - that is, how much improvement "some" is - would be notable...Finally, discussion of how the FOMC is evaluating the appropriate pace of rate hikes, and how they plan to communication that pace, would be noteworthy and get some market attention. Given events of late, markets are starting to price in an even flatter hiking cycle. Discussion at the July meeting could influence market views around the pace of rate hikes (and perhaps the terminal rate as well).
SocGen: We don't really hold out too much hope that the FOMC minutes will magically clear the fog surrounding Fed policy and resolve the debate raging in the market. The majority of economists, strategists and commentators respond to surveys by saying they expect a rate hike in September or, failing that, later this year. Traders, salespeople, and investors, as well as Uncle Tom Cobley, are more circumspect after the repeated failure of the Fed to hike in recent years. Most likely, the minutes will be seen to support the view of the consensus amongst the commentators, but will fail to allay the fear of inaction amongst the traders/investors. And that would most likely leave markets still wracked by uncertainty, about the Fed, global growth and China. Too much to worry about to believe that risk aversion will melt away. So, it seems right to stay long USD and JPY, short Asian and commodity-sensitive currencies through the uncertainty.
Credit Agricole: When it comes to the FOMC minutes, we believe that they should support the view of the central bank considering higher rates in September. Our economists expect central bank members to note solid job gains, declining unemployment, and diminished labour market slack. Employment data released since the last meeting should be consistent with further improving conditions. Elsewhere, there should be a heightened focus on any debate regarding the inflation outlook, especially as falling inflation expectations have been regarded by market participants as a reason to question the Fed's readiness to tighten monetary policy this year. Altogether we see limited risk of falling Fed monetary policy expectations in response to the minutes and that keeps us confident in being long the greenback.
RBS: Market participants are desperate for a similarly clear signal, in either direction, about the likelihood of a September 2015 rate hike and as Chair Yellen is not speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium this year, the FOMC July meeting minutes should be heavily scrutinized in this regard. While our economist Michelle Girard thinks the Fed may disappoint on giving a "firm" signal, which would fit with their data dependent outlook, she sees a risk that the FOMC minutes begin to put a greater emphasis on the pace of hikes being gradual. A clear discussion along those lines may be a "soft signal" that an earlier start to rate hikes, giving more assurance that a gradual pace can be taken, is the preferred path of the FOMC's majority...Because the meeting took place before China's devaluation, that discussion should not come up in the FOMC July minutes.
BNPP: The FOMC minutes should show mixed views on the timing of lift-off but with a clear majority still expecting a move this year. Areas to monitor more closely are further details on what would make the Fed "reasonably confident" in the inflation outlook as well as an assessment of the impact from international developments. We think the risk-reward still favours being patiently bullish on the USD ahead of the likely return of better trading conditions in September.
HSBC: It will be important to see if any additional insight to when the first interest rate increase in the US for more than nine years will arrive. The proportion of FOMC members concerned about external events, given this meeting occurred before the recent volatility in China will also be of particular interest as will any discussion on the potential size, frequency or terminal point of the anticipated hiking cycle.
Commerzbank: In contrast to us (and most other analysts), the markets are still not convinced of a rate hike in September. Perhaps the minutes will finally make the market realise that the Fed's baseline scenarioforesees a rate hike in September and that only massive downside surprises will keep the Fed from implementing its plans. Judging from the Fed's signals up to now, however, inflation is unlikely to be the tipping factor.
SEB: The Minutes from the 28-29 July FOMC meeting may give some fresh indications concerning the probability of a September hike, which still is our main call. As it is our interpretation that the July employment report was consistent with the "some further improvement" that the Fed is looking for any suggestions in the minutes how "some" should be interpreted will be interesting. Furthermore, a possible discussion on the interest rate path and how to communicate it to the public could be interpreted as the Fed is gearing up for a hike in September. Finally, it will be interesting to see the officials views on China. Market reaction: Generally EUR/USD is more volatile than usual on days with Minutes, though the market reaction is usually very short lived as most of the change has occurred the first ten minutes. However, the day after there is continueation pattern.
Danske: We should find out more on the general thinking on inflation within the FOMC as the minutes from the July FOMC meeting are released later today. The FOMC added the word 'some' to the phrase 'further improvement in the labour market' in relation to what is needed to trigger a first rate hike. Our interpretation of this change is that labour market data would have to worsen for the Fed to take its finger off the trigger while a continuation of the recent trend would be enough for the Fed to pull. We continue to see the first Fed funds rate hike coming in September, but the risk is that it comes later.
BTMU: The deteriorating outlook for external demand and strengthening US dollar are two factors that the will Fed will have to take into consideration as it decides on when to begin the gradual process of monetary policy normalization. The release tonight of the latest FOMC minutes from their meeting on the 29th July will be scrutinized closely for any clearer signal as to whether the first rate hike will be delivered in September. The market is still finely balanced attaching roughly a 50:50 probability to the likelihood of the Fed delivering a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in September. The accompanying policy statement did not provide a clear signal over the likely timing of the first rate hike although the Fed moved closer to raising rates by stating only "some" further improvement in labour market conditions was required. The minutes could prove more backward looking than normal following the recent devaluation of the renminbi.
