A preview of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand due at 9am local NZ time
I've popped up a couple of previews already from some of the banks:
- RBNZ - early preview (WPAC)
- ASB RBNZ preview: January ... is a little too soon
Neither is expecting a cut; in fact, of the 16 economists Bloomberg have most recently surveyed, none is expecting a cut from the RBNZ tomorrow
A concern for the RBNZ will be the very low inflation data last week ... The q/q result showed deflation while the y/y barely beat that, coming in at +0.1%
The target band for the RBNZ is 1 - 3 % y/y
RBNZ do project that inflation will move higher this year, they've said recently that inflation will move into the band on current rate settings. Their projections on inflation have not been to accurate, though, and there is government pressure for more cuts to rates given the super low inflation rate.
At the very least from the RBNZ tomorrow you can expect very dovish language, which will pre-empt action likely at the next meeting.
I'm going out on a limb and looking for an OCR cut from the RBNZ tomorrow. My confidence level isn't high, I reckon it'll be a close call ... but there you go.