June 2021 FOMC meeting

Dot Plot:

The dot plot for the June FOMC meeting shows:

  • 7 fed officials see hikes in 2022
  • 13 fed official see hikes in 2023.
dot 2021

Below is the dot plot from the March meeting. At the time, 4 Fed officials expecting hikes in 2022 and 7 Fed officials in 2023.

dot plot

Central Tendencies June 2021:

Central tendencies

Central Tendencies for 2021:

  • GDP 6.8% to 7.3% vs.5.8% to 6.6% in March. GDP HIGHER
  • Unemployment 4.4% to 4.8% vs 4.2% to 4.7% in March. Unemployment rate marginally higher.
  • PCE 3.1% to 3.5% vs 2.2% to 2.4% in March. Inflation much higher.
  • Core PCE 2.9% vs 3.1% vs 2.0% to 2.3% in March. Core inflation much higher.

Central Tendencies for 2022:

  • GDP 2.8% to 3.8% to 3.0% to 3.8% in March. Growth near unchanged.
  • Unemployment 3.5% to4.0% vs 3.6% to 4.0% in March. Employment near unchanged
  • PCE 1.9% to 2.3% vs 1.8% to 2.1% in March. Inflation marginally higher.
  • Core PCE 1.9% to 2.3% vs. 1.9% to 2.1% in March. Core unchanged.

Highlights:

  • More Fed officials say higher rates in 2022 (from 4 to 7)
  • GDP much higher in 2021
  • Headline inflation and core inflation also much higher in 2021
  • 2022 central tendencies are near unchanged from March estimates