There's hardly a person at the Fed or on Wall St who doesn't believe this:

From Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart's speech 'To Liftoff and Beyond' today.

"I expect something of a replay of 2014-a weak first quarter due to transitory causes followed by a pickup in growth in later quarters."

Because it happened last year, the Fed and markets grew extremely confident about it. But faith is beginning to wane among traders as US economic numbers continue to disappoint.

He might be right but here's what can happen when everyone leans in the same direction.